Tim Loftus

US Patent:

20190377103, Dec 12, 2019

Filed:

Aug 23, 2019

Appl. No.:

16/549079

Inventors:

- State College PA, US
Tim Loftus - Wichita KS, US
Jennifer Bowers - Wichita KS, US
Paul Roehsner - State College PA, US
Paul Raymond - State College PA, US
Michael R. Root - Edmond OK, US

International Classification:

G01W 1/10

Abstract:

A system and method of predicting the financial impact of environmental or geologic events (that include one or more environmental or geologic conditions) by determining a recurrence interval of each past condition in each location, determining the correlation between the past condition and the observable financial impact of the past event, calculating a predicted observable financial impact of each past event, calculating a predicted financial impact of each past event recurring by multiplying the predicted observable financial impact of the past event by the recurrence interval of the past condition, grouping the past events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted financial impact of the past condition recurring, determining a threshold for each group, identifying current or forecasted conditions, and determining the predicted financial impact of the current or forecasted conditions by comparing the current or forecasted conditions with the thresholds.

US Patent:

20190204475, Jul 4, 2019

Filed:

Dec 28, 2018

Appl. No.:

16/236044

Inventors:

- State College PA, US
Tim Loftus - Wichita KS, US
Jennifer Akers - Wichita KS, US
Michael R. Root - Edmond OK, US

International Classification:

G01W 1/10

Abstract:

A system and method for forecasting perceived transitions to the four annual seasons in geographic areas is disclosed. The perceived transitions are identified by comparing forecasted daily temperatures in each geographic area to thresholds generated based on normal daily temperatures in those geographic areas. The forecasted daily temperatures may be calculated using both forecasted temperatures and forecasted perceived ambient temperatures (calculated using both temperature and humidity, cloud cover, sun intensity, and/or wind speed).

US Patent:

20180240137, Aug 23, 2018

Filed:

Feb 20, 2018

Appl. No.:

15/900574

Inventors:

- State College PA, US
Jennifer Bowers Akers - Wichita KS, US
Tim Loftus - Wichita KS, US
Michael R. Root - Edmond OK, US

International Classification:

G06Q 30/02
G06F 17/18
G06N 3/08

Abstract:

Disclosed is an economic forecast system that overcomes technical problems with conventional systems. Conventional economic forecast systems may analyze past economic behavior and construct statistical models to predict future behavior. When incorporating past weather data, however, conventional systems generate overfitted and/or underfitted models because of the high multicollinearity of weather metrics. The disclosed system overcomes this technical problem with conventional systems by analyzing weather metrics that are divided into groups (based on the multicollinearity of the weather metrics in each group) and generates a statistical model using the one or more most statistically significant weather metrics from each group.

US Patent:

20170343702, Nov 30, 2017

Filed:

May 31, 2017

Appl. No.:

15/609650

Inventors:

- State College PA, US
Tim Loftus - Wichita KS, US
Jennifer Bowers - Wichita KS, US
Paul Roehsner - State College PA, US
Paul Raymond - State College PA, US
Michael R. Root - Edmond OK, US

International Classification:

G01W 1/10

Abstract:

A system and method of predicting the impact of forecasted weather, environmental, and geologic events (that include one or more weather/environmental/geologic conditions) by determining a recurrence interval of each past condition in each location, determining the correlation between the past condition and the observable impact of the past event, calculating a predicted observable impact of each past event, calculating a predicted impact of each past event recurring by multiplying the predicted observable impact of the past event by the recurrence interval of the past condition, grouping the past events into a plurality of groups based on the predicted impact of the past condition recurring, determining a threshold for each group, receiving forecasted conditions, and determining the predicted impact of the forecasted conditions by comparing the forecasted conditions with the thresholds.